Goldman Sachs Cuts Its Forecasts as Precious Metals Rally

published at 11.09.2026

Gold and silver prices started the week on a positive note, gaining momentum following the recent US midterm elections. Gold rose by around 4%, while silver gained more than 5%, as investors reacted to movements in the US dollar and expectations for future interest rates. On Monday, spot gold climbed approximately 1.6% to $4,129.69 per ounce, while silver increased by 2.8% to $53.31. However, investors are receiving mixed signals about the future direction of precious metals, with some analysts expecting further gains while others remain more cautious.

 

Goldman Sachs has recently lowered its gold price forecasts, reducing its year-end 2026 target from $4,650 to $4,150 per ounce and its year-end 2027 forecast from $5,400 to $4,800. The bank's analysts, led by Lina Thomas, explained that the Federal Reserve has adopted a more cautious approach towards interest rate cuts in recent months. Higher interest rates can make gold less attractive because the metal does not generate interest income, encouraging some investors to move their money into other assets. Despite lowering its forecasts, Goldman Sachs still expects gold to benefit from strong demand from central banks.

Central banks are expected to continue purchasing around 60 tonnes of gold per month throughout 2026 and 2027. This demand remains an important source of support for prices, as many countries continue to increase their gold reserves. The bank also believes that gold could receive further support when the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, which it currently expects to happen in the second half of 2027. However, higher oil prices could put additional pressure on gold if they lead to changes in investment strategies and increased selling activity.

Economist Peter Schiff has a more positive outlook on gold's future prospects. He believes that a Democratic-controlled Congress could lead to higher government spending, larger budget deficits and increased regulation. In his view, these developments could contribute to higher inflation and increase demand for gold as a way to protect wealth. This outlook differs from Goldman Sachs' more cautious short-term position, highlighting the significant disagreement among market experts about how much further gold prices could rise.

 

Recent market developments have also supported precious metals. Gold prices moved higher on Monday as the US dollar weakened, partly following reports of ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran. Growing hopes of a possible peace agreement have helped ease some concerns about geopolitical risks. Oil prices have also remained close to their lowest levels in approximately two months. However, stronger-than-expected US employment figures have created another challenge for gold, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer or even consider another rate hike in December.

 

From a technical perspective, gold is approaching an important resistance area around $4,150 per ounce, which previously limited its gains. If buyers manage to push prices above this level, the next areas to watch are around $4,230 and $4,400. On the downside, initial support is located around $4,050, followed by $4,030 and the important psychological level of $4,000. If gold falls below this area, further declines towards $3,900 and $3,825 could become possible. These levels are important for traders to monitor, although changing market conditions and upcoming economic data could quickly affect the short-term outlook.

 

Overall, gold continues to receive support from central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty and expectations about future interest rate changes. However, Goldman Sachs' decision to lower its forecasts suggests that the path towards higher prices may not be straightforward. Upcoming US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be particularly important in determining the market's direction. For traders and investors, the main question is whether strong demand for gold will be enough to support further gains despite expectations of higher interest rates. The coming weeks could provide a clearer picture of whether the recent recovery has room to continue or whether gold prices will face further pressure.

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