On Thursday, October 29, attention will turn to the US economy with the release of third-quarter GDP figures and September inflation data. GDP shows whether the US economy is growing or slowing down, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures changes in the prices consumers pay, is closely monitored by the Fed. Strong economic growth combined with high inflation could lead the central bank to maintain a more cautious approach. Conversely, slower growth and lower inflation could strengthen expectations of future interest rate cuts.

These developments could trigger significant movements in the US dollar and major currency pairs, such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. If the Fed takes a firmer stance on inflation than the European Central Bank, the US dollar could strengthen against the euro. However, if the Fed shows less concern about inflation while the ECB maintains a firm stance, the euro could benefit. The ECB will announce its decision on Thursday at 2:15 p.m. Central European Time.

Gold will also be in focus as investors assess interest rates, the US dollar and geopolitical risks. On October 26, gold was trading at around $4,012 per ounce. If the Fed signals that interest rates may remain high, gold could come under pressure because it does not pay interest. However, if investors expect lower interest rates or become more concerned about global risks, gold could receive support. Oil prices are another factor to watch, as changes in energy costs can affect inflation and influence central bank decisions. These relationships are not fixed, and prices can move in different directions depending on market conditions.

Stock markets could also react to the Fed's decision and the latest economic indicators. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, which can weigh on business growth and share prices. Conversely, lower rates could support stock markets, particularly the technology sector, provided investors remain confident in the economy. However, weaker economic data could put pressure on markets if they raise concerns about corporate earnings. This means traders should look not only at the interest rate decision but also at what the economic data reveal about the health of the US economy.

This week could prove crucial for the US dollar, gold, oil and global stock markets. The Fed's decision on Wednesday, together with the US GDP and inflation data and the ECB's announcement on Thursday, will provide investors with further insight into the direction of monetary policy. Rather than assuming that a particular outcome will automatically trigger a specific market move, traders should compare actual results with market expectations and monitor how prices react. The key question is whether inflation remains a concern or whether the economy is moving towards conditions that could allow interest rates to fall in the future.