Adding to the pressure, Bitcoin’s chart structure has turned more bearish. The cryptocurrency has formed a rising wedge pattern on the daily timeframe — a formation that usually appears during corrective moves and often signals further downside. Price action has now slipped below the wedge’s lower support line, confirming the breakdown. Historically, similar patterns in Bitcoin have resulted in declines equal to the height of the wedge, placing the next potential target near $80,200. Bitcoin’s struggle to break above its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages has reinforced this negative setup, as both indicators continue to act as resistance.

Bitcoin and Ethereum each fell nearly 3% over the past 24 hours as traders reacted to the Federal Reserve’s cautious messaging. The Fed highlighted ongoing inflation risks and softening job market conditions, lowering expectations for an aggressive rate-cut cycle. As of Thursday, Bitcoin was trading near $90,154 and Ethereum around $3,193. Despite this cautious backdrop, a rise in bullish options activity has been building. The most active strike is the $100,000 call option expiring on December 26, with more than 18,360 open contracts, compared to just 2,540 bearish puts, according to options analytics platform Laevitas.

However, the positioning behind these bullish contracts shows traders expect only a limited rebound rather than a strong year-end rally. Many of the active strategies — such as long call condors and bull call spreads — aim for moderate upside, not a large breakout. The Fed also announced it will begin purchasing about $40 billion per month in short-term Treasury bills to help manage liquidity conditions, but this has not translated into a more optimistic market tone. Despite slight improvement in the 25-delta options skew, which rose from -8% to -5% over two weeks, the skew remains negative. This signals that traders still prefer downside protection even after the Fed’s decision. According to a report from CryptoQuant, any relief rally is likely capped near $99,000.

Bitcoin is now trading near $89,500, down 2.4% in the past 24 hours and about 5.5% below its intraday high of $94,267 following the Fed announcement. Seasonal factors may also limit upward momentum. As Adam Chu from GreeksLive explained, Christmas and year-end settlement periods historically lead to weaker liquidity in the crypto market, reducing the potential for a sustained move higher. Lower implied volatility supports this view, reflecting reduced expectations for sharp price swings. As a result, the probability of Bitcoin closing above $100,000 by Christmas is now around 24%, according to Sean Dawson of Derive.

Looking ahead, the strongest bullish sentiment is shifting into early 2026. Traders have been building significant call positions at the $130,000 and $180,000 strikes for March, signaling where many see the real opportunity. For investors, the current environment suggests prioritizing caution in the near term while watching for potential accumulation opportunities if Bitcoin extends toward key support levels. Although short-term upside may be limited, positioning data indicates growing expectations for a stronger move in the first quarter of next year.